| U.S. rare-earth concentrate output (REO) | 51,000 t and USD 240M | USGS MCS 2026 chapter, published 2026-02 | Shows domestic output scale but not full self-sufficiency for downstream NdFeB supply chains. | [S1] |
| U.S. imports of RE compounds/metals | +169% volume in 2025; value USD 165M vs USD 168M in 2024 | USGS MCS 2026 chapter, published 2026-02 | Procurement risk is driven by product mix and category shifts, not only by headline import value. | [S1] |
| World rare-earth production estimate | 390,000 t in 2025 | USGS MCS 2026 foreword (published 2026-02) | Global supply expanded, but growth does not remove concentration and policy-shock exposure. | [S3] |
| Heavy rare-earth net import reliance (U.S.) | 100% in 2025 (compounds and metals) | USGS MCS 2026 heavy rare earths chapter, published 2026-02 | High-temperature NdFeB lanes can inherit geopolitical and licensing risks through Dy/Tb exposure. | [S2] |
| Rare-earth demand change in STEPS | +50% to +60% by 2040 | IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 | Even moderate scenario growth keeps pressure on magnet-material qualification and sourcing plans. | [S4] |
| China projected refining share (battery-grade graphite + rare earths) | Around 80% in 2035 | IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 | Dual-lane sourcing should start before RFQ freeze for high-risk temperature classes. | [S4] |
| N-1 supply coverage for graphite + rare earths | Only 35% to 40% of N-1 demand in 2035 | IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 | Single-country disruption can invalidate otherwise "balanced" supply assumptions. | [S4] |
| Salt spray as field-life predictor | Seldom correlates when used as stand-alone data | ASTM B117-26, last updated 2026-01-19 | Do not convert fog-test hours directly into service-life commitments without corroborating evidence. | [S10] |
| U.S. import-source concentration (rare-earth compounds/metals) | China 71%, Malaysia 13%, Japan 5%, Estonia 5% (2021-24) | USGS MCS 2026 chapter, published 2026-02 | Single-origin dependency remains material for NdFeB programs even when aggregate import value looks stable. | [S1] |
| Heavy-RE import-source concentration signal | Terbium 100% China; Holmium 100% China; Lutetium 100% China | USGS MCS 2026 heavy-RE chapter (2021-24 shipping records) | Programs that depend on heavy-RE-enabled coercivity lanes should not assume diversified upstream availability. | [S2] |
| China medium/heavy RE export-control trigger | Announcement No.18 issued and effective 2025-04-04, licensing required for listed items | MOFCOM + GACC announcement, 2025-04-04 | RFQ assumptions need explicit license-path checks for Tb/Dy-related NdFeB lanes before launch freeze. | [S12] |
| EU CRMA 2030 benchmark package | 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling, <=65% single-country dependency | EU policy references published 2024; benchmark horizon 2030 | EU-facing programs increasingly require sourcing plans that show diversification and regional processing options. | [S13][S14] |
| U.S. mine-to-magnet policy signal (2025) | $150M heavy-RE separation loan (2025-08-10) + $5.1M recycling award (2025-01-17, est. 50 t/y REO) | U.S. Department of Defense releases in 2025 | Domestic capacity expansion is underway but still transitional; contingency lanes remain necessary for near-term programs. | [S15][S16] |